STRICTLY 4 THE ISLANDS: THE TROUBLE IN PALAU

Weekly Pacific Politics with Otis Whinney

That time of year I know you’ve all waited for with baited breath has finally arrived. I am, of course, talking about the Pacific Islands Forum, where the leaders of the Pacific congregate to hash out the big issues facing the region. Well, that’s what it’s supposed to be at least. This year, it is to take place in Palau, and by the time this article is released the conference will have concluded. But from where I'm seated, things will be very different this time around. This PIF has seen many leaders unable to make it, whether it be due to political turmoil at home or their allegiances abroad. Prime Minister of the Solomon Islands Matthew Wale, for example, had to pull out last-minute after a motion of no confidence was brought to the table by Home Affairs minister Manassaeh Maelanga. After enjoying a busy three months in the role, Wale will now have to face the music at home instead of making those key connections he no doubt sought to make at the PIF.

Wale has been doing his best to mend ties with nations like Australia in the wake of his two predecessors moving the Solomon Islands closer in alignment with China. This no-confidence motion comes after accusations that Wale has been making consequential decisions for the government without proper consultation or oversight. Wale’s immediate moves to smooth over ties with Australia may be what they are referring to, but there are allegations Maelanga has pushed this through to take attention away from several ongoing independent investigations into the actions of previous administrations that could reflect quite badly on those involved. He denies this, and at the time of writing this it remains as speculation. What is on everyone’s minds in regards to this, however, is China. The Solomon Islands has been in a diplomatic back and forth for years, with China making grand investments and Australia attempting to counter that as it has done in places like Fiji and Papua New Guinea. Wale’s hard pivot towards stronger ties with the West could be seen as a motivator to oust him amongst politicians who see more benefits in a further shift closer to Beijing.

Kiribati’s President will also be absent, and in his place will be David Teaabo, Director of the Foreign Service and the former ambassador to China. The leaders of Naero, Vanuatu, and Sāmoa will also be absent, although not all for reasons as dramatic as others. The region is facing several unprecedented crises, not limited to the increased presence of drug cartels, the ever-worsening state of our climate, and a series of health crises littered across our region, but our ability to work together on these issues is consistently hampered by our alliances with (and often reliance on) competing foreign powers. China and the USA will both be represented at the PIF, and if our inability to have a cohesive response to the Chinese missile test in the Pacific ocean is anything to go by, I cannot see a path where we find a productive framework for collaboration in these trying times.

Christopher Luxon will also not be present, instead sending our actual Prime Minister, Winston Peters, to the conference. Winston was very much interested in a united condemnation of the missile test, but the motion was blocked by multiple Pacific countries with deeper ties to China, namely Kiribati and Naero. But given that the USA conducts plenty of their own missile tests in Pacific waters, holds political control over several Pacific island groups in the form of their American territories, and have an unrivalled military presence in the region because of that, it's not shocking that a country like China would want a piece of that pie. As they do everything they can to ensure their status as an alternative power to the USA, the Pacific seems to be getting tied up in a geopolitical struggle the likes of which we have not seen for decades. And while events like the PIF are supposed to allow us to smooth it all out, it seems like there’s quite a few actors involved who’d rather we keep bickering until someone comes out on top. And nothing bad in history has ever happened because of people like that, I’m sure.