STRICTLY 4 THE ISLANDS

STAKES IS HIGH:

STRAINED RELATIONSHIPS IN THE MOANA

Something is always happening in our sea of islands. In the Solomon Islands, for example, March 16 saw the shock resignation of 10 MPs in an apparent government takeover by the People First Party (PFP) against Prime Minister Manele’s OUR Party. This comes after Manele survived multiple votes of no confidence in Parliament, and as the Solomon Islands remain split on their relationships with places like China and Australia. Opposition MP Peter Kenilorea Jr was quoted by The Guardian in January saying there is a “battle for the hearts and minds going on” when it comes to the competition for influence in the Solomon Islands. As all sides increase their policing and defense ties with the Solomons, it doesn’t look like this political turmoil will cease for these islands anytime soon.

The Solomons are not the only place being forced to confront these ideas. Cook Island’s Prime Minister Mark Brown was in Aotearoa recently, but interestingly decided not to chat with Luxon, despite him recently returning from his trips to Sāmoa and Tonga. His Sāmoa trip, by the way, was a mess before he even stepped foot in the 685. After it was falsely claimed by the Sāmoan government that Luxon requested to have a Sāmoan title bestowed upon him, the descendants of the title he would be receiving began a legal case to stop the ceremony. The ceremony was conducted anyway, and Luxon is now an official holder of the Tuisinavemaulumoto'otua title. I think Luxon’s dance moves during the ceremony show how deserving he was of this. 

Tonga’s meeting was far less dramatic, with Tonga's Prime Minister Lord Fakafanua welcoming the Lux and showing his support for easing restrictions around Pacific people traveling in and around New Zealand. Tonga is, of course, also stuck in a political middle ground, as the USA’s increasing anti-immigrant sentiment affects Tongans and other Pacific peoples, and as their debt with China grows (reaching $112 million according to World Bank data from November 2025). King Tupou VI of Tonga met with President of China Xi Jinping last year, where Xi pledged that “No matter how the international situation changes, China will continue to support Tonga in safeguarding its national independence and sovereignty.” So if you trust the Chairman, then Tonga has absolutely nothing to worry about.

But back to the Cook Islands. The Cook Islands were once a part of New Zealand back in our empire days, but now they exist as an independent state in ‘free association’ with New Zealand. This vague description of the two countries' relationship has led to a long year of back and forth between Winston Peters and Mark Brown, as the Cook Islands sign deals with China and host sanctioned oil tankers linked to Russia and Iran. A pause in aid was the response from New Zealand, and at this moment it has still yet to be resolved. Former New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clarke has argued that the causes for concern on New Zealand’s side have not come from thin air, citing parts of the China agreement like “a clause that says the two countries, Cook Islands and China, undertake to support each other's candidates in international organisational elections where they're both members”, something she claims New Zealand would never agree to. She also believes the relationship is salvageable, but only time will tell there. 

Mark Brown did meet with our mate Winston informally to discuss the cross-roads our two nations find themselves in. Brown clearly wants the Cook Islands to be afforded a level of autonomy that any other independent state would get, while New Zealand seems keen on maintaining a status quo that it doesn't see any issue with. While speaking in Aotearoa, Brown stated that “there are times when we must pause and consider whether the conventions and evolved understanding between our freely associated states remain aligned…we find ourselves in such a moment”—a clear message of intent if ever there was one. Regardless of whether or not you think New Zealand was right to react to these dealings the way they did, there is no denying that this moment cannot be erased from our collective memories. That paused aid won’t materialise out of thin air for the Cook Islands, and I can think of a certain People’s Republic in East Asia that may be ready to pick up where we left off if this one doesn’t get sorted out.

In this constant game of power-politics, it can be very difficult for these island nations we inhabit to keep our voices at the forefront of issues that matter to us the most. Climate change, for example, is a front line issue for many small Pacific countries, but one that is caused largely from the decisions of external, much larger states that will be insulated from some of the more extreme results for longer (although, everyday that timeframe gets shorter). COP31, the 31st annual meeting between nations to discuss climate change, is to be held in Turkiye this year. This is in spite of the fact that Australia and the Pacific have been agitating for it to be held in a Pacific nation, where the immediate issues can be made clear to those visiting. The consensus for that was not reached, and Australia was forced to compromise with only a pre-COP meeting to take place in the Pacific before COP31. Taken in tandem with the US’s attempts to block global climate action (which I mentioned last week for those who read it), it becomes clear that on the global stage, not all voices are truly equal. Insert shocked surprise face. 

Our leaders seem very aware of the fact that the world landscape is changing. As the climate battle rages on in the political realm, war and unrest continues to expand in the physical. Recent developments in West Papua, for example, remind us that the scourge of colonial violence is not something our region can leave in the past. After a February 11 attack on an airport left two civilians dead, the Indonesian government has pledged to crack down on what they see as a rising security issue in West Papua. The attack was carried out by armed rebels who came into existence after Indonesia’s annexation of the western part of the Island of Papua last century— an annexation that was carried out with no legal basis and little support from the indigenous peoples of West Papua.

Benny Wenda, President of the United Liberation Movement for West Papua (ULMWP), has publicly decried the accused bombing campaigns the Indonesian government has been carrying out in West Papua since January—“According to Human Rights Defenders on the ground, the Indonesian military used drones to drop bombs on the refugee camp in Kembru District, forcing civilians from nine villages to flee into the forest. These are mostly women (some of them pregnant), children, and elders: defenceless people who have already been displaced from their homes by previous military operations.” Wenda’s claims are far from baseless, with ample evidence of this type of violence from the Indonesian state being brought to the forefront over the decades. Indonesia continues to deny such claims. Much like Palestine or Sudan, most places would rather not think about it. This old-school colonial conflict is going on in an island directly above Australia, a clear sign if ever there was one that things are not all goods in our region.

The stakes have never been higher for us, and the rest of the world, perhaps since the Pacific was embroiled in the second World War and decolonisation. As the more influential states (New Zealand included) throw their diplomatic weight around to try and shape our region in their image, we must remember that this isn’t new. A lot of these states used to belong to global empires before gaining independence, and while some still have yet to reach that point, the way the Pacific looks today is proof that big powers don’t have to win big power politics, and sometimes they can even lose. As a wise man once said: “any nation that oppresses another, forges its own chains.”