Young men are switching right. How will Labour respond?

Across much of the democratic world, a familiar pattern has emerged across various elections: young men, once part of the left’s natural base, are shifting right.

In the UK and Germany, young men have been twice as likely than young women to support right-wing populist parties such as Reform and AfD. South Korean conservative parties hold a 30% advantage among young male voters. The same holds true across much of the rest of Europe and Canada, though curiously not Australia.

Traditional electoral theory has long treated younger voters as a broadly progressive bloc. But progressive parties can’t win elections if half of their voter base is against them. 

New Zealand goes to the polls in six months. The question for Labour is whether the same switch is taking root here—and, if it is, how to respond.

Labour’s campaign manager and MP Kieran McAnulty is acutely aware of this potential shift. His job is to make sure what’s happening elsewhere doesn’t occur here. He cites the lack of credible left-wing alternatives to right wing politics as a cause of the problem overseas. 

“If you're working in a low-paid job or an insecure job, and you're getting told that an immigrant is living a good lifestyle because they've taken your job, over time that might resonate if there is a vacuum of alternatives coming from left-wing parties,” said McAnulty. 

So, what’s the response? McAnulty says it will be to meet, communicate where the young men are, and focus on the solutions to the issues at hand. 

“It would be too simplistic to say that young men only get their information through social media,” says McAnulty. “But it’s not the mainstream media as much as it once was.” 

“So YouTube, other platforms where people might get a longer form broadcast, the sort of thing that you'd expect to see on the public broadcaster back in the day, but now in a different format with a very much a right-wing slant.’

“To counter that, we’ve got to figure out a way to get to these voters and offer a credible alternative which addresses the things they care about in a progressive way. You simply can’t get in front of these people and just say Reform or the AfD is bad.”

As an example, if New Zealand First is blaming everything on immigrants, McAnulty says the response is less about calling it outrageous and more about offering an alternative. 

“People might only see us twice a week, and if they see us defending ourselves or criticizing others, then they're not really hearing what we're about.”

It’s an interesting counterpoint to the Greens. When asked the same questions last year by Salient, Greens co-leader Marama Davidson said their response would be to double down on the politics of hope to offer a left-wing alternative. Labour’s approach appears more understated, and seems to focus more on where they are messaging. 

While the race between the left and right (as a whole) remains tight, Labour has consistently outpolled National for the last year, and McAnulty attributes that in part to how the party has reached young men. McAnulty won’t reveal what Labour's internal polling is telling them about their reach with young men, and of New Zealand’s publicly available polls, only Roy Morgan publicly releases voting intentions by gender age. 

The latest results shows 33% of men aged 18-49 preferring Labour, compared to 22.5% in October 2023. When the Greens’ and Te Pati Māori’s support is factored, Roy Morgan’s poll shows 49% of men aged 18-49 voting for a change of government (though 18-49 is a generous definition of young).

What this could suggest is that young men are more antsy for change than they are supporters of the far-right itself. The Republicans, Reform, and AfD are all parties out of power trying to break the system. Here, the right holds power. 

Similarly, while this government is more right-wing than National governments of years gone-by, there is no true far-right equivalent of the AfD or Reform in New Zealand. 

NZ First and—to a lesser extent—ACT have, however, been making noises in this space, and NZ First has recently surged up to 15% in some polls.

It is unknown whether this can be attributed to young male voters.