The future of public transport is (more) expensive

Prices on Metlink buses and trains are set to rise by 3.1%, following central government pressure and an unanticipated funding hole. The off-peak discount will be reduced from 30% to 20%, following a reduction in 2025 from 50%.

The changes will come into force on May 15. 

Bus fares are partially subsidized by both the regional council and central government. However, central government is in the process of reducing the share they subsidize. The difference has to be made up somewhere.

Combine that with bus patronage reducing while rail ridership remains stubbornly below pre-covid levels. Metlink has found itself staring down a $5 million budget hole. Hence, fare rises. 

It’s no secret that the cost of public transport is getting prohibitively expensive. Several regional councilors mentioned this in the council meeting where fare rises were agreed on. 193 of 246 respondents to an (admittedly unscientific) Salient instagram poll said they were struggling to pay public transport costs.

So what's stopping these fare rises from further reducing patronage, leaving Metlink in the same position next year?

“It's hard to tell at the moment,” admits Metlink group manager Tim Shackleton. “It’s tough in Wellington across a lot of industries. Public transport is no exception, and there’s not too much we can do but weather the storm.” 

According to Shackleton, 50% of Metlink patrons travel during off-peak hours, which is a lot of cost council has to eat, resulting in the off-peak discount reduction. 

“It’s just trying to get a bit more money given how our funding from central government has been reduced,” said Shackleton. “But council felt 20% was a level which would still have a degree of behavioural change.”

Shackleton is hopeful the off-peak discount won’t be reduced again. When more people travel off-peak, the number of buses Metlink has to purchase for solely on-peak travel reduces.

Council officers are also pouring over all the ledgers to find any potential cost savings. This could mean reductions or removals of services. 

“There’s a lot of services on the fringes which are much higher cost than those which run through the central city,” said Shackleton. “This is normal for most public transport services in the world.”

“We have services which are almost cost-neutral, meaning fares can almost cover the cost of the service. Others are as low as 5%. But there are social reasons why we have to provide public transport, because some people can’t afford taxis and rely on public transport to get them to the hospital or go shopping.

“So a 5% cost recovery isn’t necessarily a good enough reason alone to cut the service.” 

“We’re trying to create a methodology where we can balance the social factors, cost factors, and various consequences of reducing service levels to a certain part of the community.”

All of which paints a bleak picture. With a government intent on reducing its financial outlay on public transport, rates rising at record levels, and a cost-of-living crisis, Metlink has been left with nothing but bad options. 

Shackleton doesn’t disagree. 

“At this point in time, there is no silver bullet. Getting people back onto public transport is quite challenging without money to invest.”